The Next Telecom Boom

Published: December 2007
50
Pages (PDF)
Author: Frank Ohrtman

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Company-wide $ 995 US


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Overview

New technologies such as IP Multimedia Subsystems (IMS) and WiMAX enable one service provider to offer the equivalent of telephone service (landline or mobile) data (T3, T1, DSL, cable modem, cellular broadband, fixed or mobile) and video at a fraction of the infrastructure costs that incumbent service providers (landline telephone, cable TV or cellular) have already invested in their networks. How will incumbents compete? Where do investment opportunities lie in terms of technologies that will be the pillars for the next (and exponentially larger) telecom boom?

This publication addresses those issues and offers answers that are critical to incumbents and new entrants as they consider significant investment in network upgrades, new networks, applications and services. In this analysis, Frank Ohrtman evaluates new technologies that will almost certainly force incumbent service providers to invest billions into new infrastructure or face a massive market share losses to new service providers or other service providers who do invest in new technologies to offer an expanded range of services.

Target Audience

 

  • Network infrastructure suppliers such as Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia Siemens Networks, Nortel, and Motorola
  • Service providers of all types including wireline, cable MSOs, cellular, and new entrants such as Google
  • Investors in new infrastructure including WiMAX, IMS, and related fixed and wireless IP applications
  • Any company with a vested interest in new broadband spectrum such as 700 MHz
  • Incumbent and new entrant fixed, wireless, and next generation operators
  • Developers of NGN applications such as FMC and any IP-based services

 

Table of Contents

Chapter One: You Can't Be A "One Trick Pony" and Expect to Survive in the Telecom Market of 2012................................................................................................................................................................................. 1

Challenges for Incumbent Telephone Companies.............................................................................................. 5

OPEX........................................................................................................................................................................ 5

CAPEX..................................................................................................................................................................... 7

Cost per Subscriber................................................................................................................................................ 7

Challenges for Cable TV Companies.................................................................................................................... 9

ARPU....................................................................................................................................................................... 9

Mostly Residential................................................................................................................................................. 9

VoIP....................................................................................................................................................................... 10

Challenges for Satellite TV Providers................................................................................................................ 10

CAPEX.................................................................................................................................................................. 10

Limitations............................................................................................................................................................ 10

Challenges for Cell Phone Service Providers................................................................................................... 11

CAPEX.................................................................................................................................................................. 11

OPEX..................................................................................................................................................................... 12

Summary.................................................................................................................................................................... 12

What Happens Next: The Four Big Telecom Technology Trends................................................................ 13

Big Trend #1: IMS - The Basis for Triple and Quadruple Play...................................................................... 14

IMS Vision............................................................................................................................................................ 15

Big Trend #2: VoIP................................................................................................................................................. 16

VoIP Architecture................................................................................................................................................ 18

The Physical Layer: Access via Media Gateways and Other Devices....................................................... 20

The Control Layer: The Softswitch.................................................................................................................. 20

The Session Border Controller (SBC)............................................................................................................... 21

Peer-to-peer Telephony...................................................................................................................................... 23

The Asterisk PBX................................................................................................................................................. 26

Conclusion............................................................................................................................................................ 27

Big Trend #3: IPTV................................................................................................................................................. 28

Mobile TV............................................................................................................................................................. 29

Big Trend #4: Wireless........................................................................................................................................... 31

What is WiMAX?................................................................................................................................................. 32

Fixed WiMAX...................................................................................................................................................... 32

Mobile WiMAX.................................................................................................................................................... 34

WiMAX is not Wi-Fi............................................................................................................................................ 35

WiMAX as compared to LMDS and MMDS................................................................................................. 38

Interference.......................................................................................................................................................... 41

Antenna Technologies and Interference......................................................................................................... 43

Prioritizing Traffic................................................................................................................................................ 45

WiMAX Security...................................................................................................................................................... 46

Four Big Trends Applications or "What will the AWS auction winners do with their new networks?"........................................................................................................................................................................................ 47

PSTN bypass with the Four Big Trends.............................................................................................................. 49

IMS + WiMAX + VoIP - The "killer app" of Three Big Trends....................................................................... 49

Four Big Trends Applications Mobile (IEEE 802.16e-2005)......................................................................... 51

IMS + VoIP + WiMAX = cellular alternative.................................................................................................. 51

Four Big Trends Economics: Compare WiMAX with Other Technologies............................................... 53

Conclusions.................................................................................................................................................................. 54


Frank Ohrtman has almost 20 years experience in VoIP and wireless applications. He is the president of WMX Systems, LLC, a Denver, Colorado-based consulting and systems integration firm. Mr. Ohrtman learned to perform in-depth research and write succinct analyses during his years as a Navy Intelligence Officer (1981-1991) during which he specialized in electronic intelligence and electronic warfare. He is a veteran of U.S. Navy actions in Lebanon (awarded Navy Expeditionary Medal), Grenada, Libya (awarded Joint Service Commendation Medal), and the Gulf War (awarded National Defense Service Medal).

His telecommunications career began with selling VoIP gateway switches for Netrix Corporation to long distance bypass carriers. He went on to promote softswitch solutions for Lucent Technologies (Qwest Account Manager) and Vsys (Western Region Sales Manager). His consulting clients include national governments and tier one telephone companies.

Mr. Ohrtman is a Gerson Lehrman Group Scholar (http://www.glgcouncils.com) and serves as Dean of WiMAX for Applied Learning Solutions (http://www.e-als.com). He is a regular blogger and contributor to WiMAX.com (http://www.wimax.com) and annual presenter at WiMAX World (http://www.wimaxworld.com) as well as local Cisco Users Groups. Mr. Ohrtman serves as an advisor to Bush Telecommunications Pty Ltd and the Rural Broadband Consortium of Australia.

Mr. Ohrtman holds a Master of Science degree in Telecommunications from Colorado University College of Engineering (master's thesis: "Softswitch As Class 4 Replacement-A Disruptive Technology"), a Master of Arts degree in International Relations from Boston University and a Bachelor of Arts, Political Science, from University of Iowa

Frank may be reached at Frank@MindCommerce.com


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